A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."